Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
       Highlights on 23 - 29.07.2012,
        Forecast on 29.07 - 06.08.2012,
    Carrington Rotation 2126 (18.82.07.2012)
 
SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE 
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD 
WAS MADE W=047+18/-11. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE 
PRESENT 4 - 7 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE:
AR11532 (S20L185, Sp= 510 m.v.h. on 28.07)- it was appeares on the vi-
sible disk 25.07. Fast development with 27 on 28 with increase of sun-
spot area in 6,5 times and at the end of the days a large flare was 
occurrences.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY  IS EXPECTED  TO BE AVERAGE.  
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM  FOR THE NEXT WEEK  IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL AT 28.07, THE AVERAGE LEVEL -27 
and 29.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORO-
NOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 69 CME AMONG WHICH TWO WAS TYPE 
OF "HALO" (BACKSIDE AND M6.1 FLARE) AND 3 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II".
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
27.07 1717 1726 >1732 s24Å70L185 M2.3/   1.6E-2 11532 II/1 IV/1 CME/0355
28.07 2044 2056  2115 S25E54L185 M6.1/2N 4.0E-2 11532 II/2 IV/2 CME/0419
29.07 0615 0622  0744 S22E49L185 M2.3/1N 1.2E-2 11532      IV/1

DSF     to         te   c/p local.  l in deg. Fl   AR          CME
24.07        2235            SE        <10                      CME/0350
27.07       >0000            SE                                 CME
c/p local. - central part localization 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. LARGE 
FLARES  ARE  POSSIBLE  IN AR11532 ONLY IN CASE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC STREAM 
EMERGENCE.
 
ON THE VISIBLE  SOLAR DISK  DURING THE LAST WEEK  THE FOLLOWING  CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end       EE    R   Observatories
óî +  N28L266 N25L260 ù06L276 N06L290 28-29.07 6  KP, SDO, SOHO... 
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WITH 28.07/~ 20 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS. 
DURING THE PERIOD FROM 23.11 BY UT EARTH PASSED "+" SECTOR. THE FOLLOWING 
SECTOR BOUNDARY - / + EARTH SHOULD PASS 5.08.

JULY      23     24     25     26     27     28     29      JULY
Wus      060    066    066    077    091    108    079 
F10.7    097    102    105    115    123    127    131 
èbcg    ÷2.50   ÷2.7   B3.2   ÷3.5   ÷4.8   ÷5.5   ÷7.0     GOES
Sp       180    270    310    360    370    780    810   
N         3      1             2      1      1           
IMF     -/ +     +      +      +      +    + /-     -      ACE
Å>2   6.9å+7 5.4E+7 7.2E+7 1.0å+8 1.1å+8 8.0å+7 1.6E+6     GOES
Nm%                                                        THULE
Ap       9       10     6      4      4      12     6      áÒ
Dst                                                        ëIOTO
Amsc     13      10     9      5      17     12     8      IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
THE SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF LOW INTENCITY (S1) WAS OBSERVED FROM BACK SIDE
FLARE (AR11520 4 DAYS FOR W-limb) on JULY 23:
Pr (E>10 MeV) -23/1545 UT; tmax=12 p.f.u. - 23/2145 UT; te - 24/15 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 23.07/11 UT TO 28.07.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.
   
NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND LOW. 

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru