MERRY CHRISTMAS FOR ALL USERS

      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 17 - 23.12.2012,
                Forecast on 24 - 31.12.2012,
   Carrington Rotations 2131, 2132 (02,17; 29,50.12.2012) 

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS THE FIRST TWO DAYS THE LOW AND 
OTHER DAYS - THE AVERAGE LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=039+15/-11. ON 
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 5-2 SMAL SUNSPOTS 
GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW  AND 
LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 
040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS 
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 52 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL HALO III"
AND ONE - THE "PARTIAL HALO II"

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FLARES  to   tm    te   c/p local. Class  E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV  CME
                                  X / opt. J/m-2
DSF     to      te   c/p local.  l in deg.   Fl   AR           CME
c/p local. - central part localization 
--------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW ANDE AVE-
RAGE LEVELS. 
 
ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL 
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE    R   Observatories
CH -   N12L070 S08L067 S09L070 S01L087   25.12   4    SDO, SOHO..
CH +   S42L050 S50L040 S52L040 S48L053   27.12   1    SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
WITH 23.12/1330 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC 
FIELDS.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 28.12.

DECEMBER 17     18     19     20     21     22     23      DECEMBER
Wus     083    066    046    053    055    067    090            
F10.7   115    116    113    114    115    115    114          
èbcg   ÷4.1   ÷4.5   ÷3.3   B2.4   ÷2.2   ÷2.6   B2.5   wt/m-2 GOES
Sp      680    600    430    570    570    430    450   Í.Ä.Ð.   
N               1                                                  
IMF      -      -     -/+     +      +      +      +            áóå
Å>2  4.1å+6 1.3E+7 2.0E+7 9.9å+6 6.7å+6 8.1å+6 8.4E+6          GOES
Ie>2                                                           GOES 
Nm%                                                           THULE
Ap       12     6      4      8      6      1      1    Îô      áÒ
Dst                                                           ëIOTO
Amsc     12     8      8      12      8     7      6    Îô  IZMIRAN
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Å>2 - a stream in days in (electrons/cm2-day-sr).
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary 
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.
 
THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 25 - 29.12.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ON DECEMBER 25 - 26 IS POS-
SIBLE DURING PASSING BY EARTH OF THE SOLAR WIND HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM 
NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM AT MID-
DLE LATITUDES OF ~30%, AND AT HIGH - 80%. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru