-------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JANUARY 2014 HAS MADE W jan.= 82.0, THAT GIVES FOR 61 MONTH (2013, JULY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC- LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 65.5 THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8 THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE- XI.2013 - I 2014 THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 68 - 75. THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2014, JANUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE 1.. 87 6..117M 11.. 99 16.. 56 21.. 90 26.. 68 31.. 65 2.. 93 7.. 98 12.. 93 17.. 52m 22..108 27.. 53 3..107 8.. 75 13.. 82 18.. 81 23..102 28.. 59 4.. 95 9.. 84 14.. 67 19.. 77 24.. 81 29.. 66 5.. 94 10.. 96 15.. 65 20.. 93 25.. 70 30.. 69 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON 2014, JANUARY F jan.= 157.4 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2014, JANUARY Ap jan.= 5.6 The end of January and the beginning of February were marked by sharp increase of flare activity. The background of x-ray radia- tion since January 27 doesn't fall below C1 value, and the back- ground flux of a radio emission on 10 cm keeps above values of 160 sfu steady. It speaks well for that the future maximum of the current cycle will be also a maximum of flare activity. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 27.01 - 02.02.2014, Forecast on 03 - 10.02.2014, Carrington Rotation 2146 (15.39.01.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, APPROACHING THE HIGH LEVEL IN THE END OF PERIOD. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 063+35/-26. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 5 - 2 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE MIDDLE SIZE AND ONE - THE VERY LARGE: AR11967(S14L117, Sp max=1510 mvh, M15, including one large) -second rotation AR11944, which produced two proton flares at January; appearance due to E- limb 26.01 moderately large sunspots group in during flare energy release - 69 h. 27-29.01 had occurrence 12M flares and 30.01-large flare M6.6 and 1 - 2.02 some more 6M flares. NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE AVERAGE AND THE HIGH LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FOR- MING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=070+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL 30.01, AT THE MODERATE LEVEL - ALL THE REMAINING DAYS, EXCEPT 29.01. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 5 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS AND THE DSF 1.02 (17 deg.) CAN BE GEOEFFEC- TIVE. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 90 CME, 2 WERE TYPE “PARTIAL HALO III” AND 9 - “PARTIAL HALO II". FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL IN ALL DAYS. DURING THE REPORT- ING PERIOD WERE 2 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT, NON GEOEFFCTIVE. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 40 CME FROM WHICH 2 WERE "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND 4 - "PARTIAL HALO II". -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X / opt. J/m-2 27.01 0105 0122 >0139 S16E88L117 M1/0/ 1.5E-2 11967 27.01 0202 0211 >0218 S13E88L117 M1.1/ 8.0E-3 11967 27.01 2205 2310 >2315 S14E88L117 M4.9/ 1.6E-2 11967 28.01 0402 0409 >0413 S14T88L117 M1.5/ 5.6E-3 11967 28.01 0725 0371 >0734 S10E75L117 M3.6/ 8.0E-3 11967 28.01 1134 1138 >1141 S10E72L117 M1.4/ 3.1E-3 11967 28.01 1233 1246 >1250 S14E79L117 M1.3/ 8.9E-3 11967 28.01 1524 1526 1543 S13E88L117 M3.5/SF ------ 11967 28.01 1900 1940 1955 S15E63L117 M4.9/SF 3.1E-2 11967 28.01 2204 2216 2223 S14E76L117 M2.6/1F 1.2E-2 11967 30.01 0633 0639 <0706 S15E54L117 M2.1/SF 9.3E-3 11967 30.01 0754 0811 0825 S11E52L117 M1.1/SF 2.5E-2 11967 30.01 1548 1611 1519 S13E58L117 M6.6/2N 9.7E-2 11967 31.01 1532 1542 >1552 N07E34L119 M1.1/ 9.3E-3 11968 01.02 0112 0125 0142 S11E26L117 M1.0/ 7.7E-3 11967 01.02 0645 0723 0843 S11E23L117 1B/M3.0 2.5E-2 11967 02.02 0624 0634 0706 N12E18L119 M2.6/1B 2.4E-3 11968 02.02 0717 0820 0842 S10E14L117 M2.2/1N 4.3E-2 11967 02.02 0924 0931 1005 S11E13L117 M4.4/1B 2.0E-2 11967 02.02 1401 1406 >1409 N12E14L119 M1.3/ 3.4E-3 11968 02.02 1624 1629 >1636 N09E06L119 M1.0/ 5.0E-3 11968 02.02 1805 1811 >1818 S10E08L117 M3.1/ 1.4E-2 11967 02.02 2124 2204 >2214 S10E01L117 M1.3/ 2.8E-2 11967 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 27.01 2001 2019 S22E17L171 17 29.01 ~0058 0200 S31W60L212 21 CME 01.02 0118 0156 S38W63L185 7 01.02 0206 0347 S31E62L060 9 01.02 <1757 <2217 S01W31L153 17 CME c/p local. - central part localization -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND HIGH LEVELS, BUT WITH 6.02-AT THE LOW LEVEL. THE EMERGENCE OF VERY LARGE NEW MAG- NETIC FLUX IN THE CENTRAL REGION AR11967 AT END 31.01 IT HAD TO GIVE BIRTH TO A SERIES OF THE LARGE FLARES, INCLUDING OF CLASS X; HOWEVER, THUS FAR THIS AR GAVE OUT ONLY SECOND SPLASH OF THE FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS AND ACTIVATED FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASS IN, THE SYMMETRICAL RELA- TIVE TO EQUATOR, AR11968 OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. HOWEVER TO THE END OF FEBRUARY, 3, ALERT TO THE LARGE FLARES REMAINS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - N45L036 N40L>006 N10L060 N17L064 9-10.02 6 A SDO, SOHO,.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A - active. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 1.02/1030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG- NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS 15.02. JANUARY 27 28 29 30 31 01 02 FEBRUARY Wus 062 070 096 112 087 147 163 F10.7 144 157 156 161 166 177 190!!! èbcg ó1.2 ó1.4 ó1.0 ó1.2 ó1.0 ó1.4 ó1.8 GOES Sp 490 910 1370 1470 1210 1640 1890 mvh N 2 1 1 IMF + + + + + +/- - áóå Å>2 1.8å+6 1.5å+6 1.2å+6 1.4å+6 1.3å+6 1.4E+6 4.7E+5 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 3 5 7 4 2 5 4 nT áÒ Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 5 8 8 6 6 6 5 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 p.f.u. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUITE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru