Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
               Highlights on 10 - 16.11.2014,
                 Forecast on 17 - 24.11.2014,
           Carrington Rotation 2157 (11.30.11.2014)
 
 SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN  WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. 
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER 
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 054+16/-16. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 3 - 6 SUNSPOT GROUPS, 
ONE OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE. IT IS 2 PASSAGE OF THE ONLY GIGANTIC 
SUNSPOT GROUP (AR12192) OF CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE: 
AR12209 (S13L264, CMP 18.11.2014, Sp max= 940 mvh) - appearance 
on east limb at 11.11, it consisting of two interacting parts. 
In 30 hours on 15-16.11 in tail, northwest part of sunspot group 
there were the flare of X-ray class 1 large and 2 middle.

 NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT FORMING ACTIVITY IS EX-
PECTED. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE 
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS 
EXPECTED W = 040+20/-10.

 FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE HIGH LEVEL AT 16.11, THE MIDDLE - AT 
15.11, AND THE LOW LEVEL -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE IS ONE EJECTIONS 
OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT.  BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO 
WERE OBSERVED 26 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "PARTIAL GALO II". 

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FLARES   to   tm   te    c/p local.Class    E(1-8A)  AR RII/IV CME
                                   X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
15.11  1140 1203 ~1240 S09E63L264 M3.2/SB  2.4E-02  12209
15.11  1850 1944  2050 S13E63L264 M3.7/    1.3E-02  12209
16.11  1735 1748 >1757 S12E46L254 M5.7/    4.1E-02  12209

DSF     to      te    c/p local.     l in deg.  Fl    AR     CME
11.11  >0954  <2212  S12E09L338        5 
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE LE-
VELS. IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX LARGE FLARES ARE 
POSSIBLE IN AR12209. 

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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  sign  N end   Å end   S end   W end      EE   R  G   Observatories
CH  +   N58L279 N55L267 N12L317 N18L325  16.11  2  G1  SDO,SOHO....
CH  +   N02L271 S02L269 S10L273 S05L286  19.11  6  G0  SDO,SOHO....
The second CH consists of 3 parts and on 
http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/ CH isn't. On last turn I passed it.
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
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 AFTER 14.11/0830 UT  THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY 
MAGNETIC FIELD.  THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO 
PASS 26.11.

NOVEMBER  10      11    12     13     14     15     16    NOVEMBER 
Wus      063     070   089    104    117    100    091    
F10.7    136     142   153    154    161    161    172    
èbcg    ÷6.6    ÷9.4  ÷8.2   ÷9.3   ÷8.1   ÷7.2   ÷9.5       GOES
Sp       410     330   370    300    960    960   1040   mvh   
N         1             1      2      1      1            
IMF       -       -     -      -     -/+     +      +        áóå   
Å>2   2.5E+5 7.6å+4 3.3å+5 6.9å+5 4.9å+5 5.7E+6 8.7E+7       GOES
Ie>2                                                     pfu GOES  
Ap       24     10      8      5      12     15     23   nT    
Dst     -55    -23                                       nT KIOTO  
Amsc     21     14      9      6      14     14     16   nT IZMIRAN 
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Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits 
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL WAS BEGAN AT 16.11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH 
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 17 - 22.11.

SUBSTORM INTENSITY OF G1 WAS LASTING 9 HOURS IT IS REGISTERED ON NOVEM-
BER, 10 ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN AND THE CENTER IN BOULDERE DATA. 
THE SECOND INDIGNATION - SMALL 
MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Amc=25, dlit. = 21 h.) IZMIRAN is REGISTERED 15 - 
16.11 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER In BOLDERE DATA, HOWEVER FROM IZMIRAN DA-
TA IS THERE WAS A SUBSTORM of G0 INTENSITY AND ONLY 3 HOURS DURATION.
IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON NOVEMBER 16 
AND 19,  BUT IN BOTH CASES PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM  NO  MORE 
THAN 15%. IN OTHER DAYS THE UNSETTLED AND QUIET GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION 
IS MOST PROBABLE.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC            http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - 
SIDC, BELGIUM           http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru