Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 24 - 30.11.2014, Forecast on 01 - 07.12.2014, Carrington Rotation 2157 (11.30.11.2014) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE AND THE HIGH LEVELS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 089+13/ -22. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-9 SUN- SPOT GROUPS, TWO OF WHICH WAS LARGE SIZE: AR12216 (S13L164, CMP 25.11.2014, Sp max =640 mvh), IT IS THE QUITE; AR12222 (S20L082, CMP 01.12.2014, Sp max = 540 mvh), IT IS THE QUITE STILL. NEXT WEEK EXPECTED AVERAGE, AND BY END OF THE PERIOD POSSIBLE AND THE LOW SUNSPOT ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. THERE ARE TWO EJEC- TIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STE- REO WERE OBSERVED 34 CME WHICH OF THEM TWO WERE OF "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME 24.11 0126 0215 N10W20L195 9 26.11 >1015 <2214 N12W28L177 22 -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVEL. IN CASE OF EMERGENCE OF THE NEW MAGNETIC FLUX LARGE FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN AR 12216 AND AR12222. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: -------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end Å end S end W end EE R G Observatories CH - S31L203 S45L188 S60L188 S40L218 25.11 1 G0 SDO,SOHO.... CH + N50L143 N48L123 N25L148 N36L153 30.11 3 G0 SDO,SOHO.... R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation; A-active geomagnetic condition. --------------------------------------------------------------------- AFTER 27.11/03 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 12.12. îïñâòø 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 îïñâòø Wus 111 120 170 155 166 156 153 F10.7 172 169 171 179 181 177 177 èbcg ÷9.3 ÷8.3 ÷8.7 C1.4 C1.1 ÷9.1 ÷7.9 GOES Sp 2070 2060 940 970 1220 1350 1540 mvh N 3 2 1 1 IMF + + + +/- - - - áóå Å>2 2.7E+7 1.7å+7 3.8å+7 1.3å+7 7.0å+6 5.1E+6 4.9E+6 GOES Ie>2 pfu GOES Ap 7 3 4 8 5 5 9 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 8 7 5 10 6 6 13 nT IZMIRAN NOVEMBER 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 NOVEMBER Wus 095 092 072 083 068 064 066 F10.7 168 167 170 168 163 167 173 èbcg ÷7.9 ÷8.9 ÷9.2 ÷8.8 ÷7.7 ÷8.6 ÷8.9 GOES Sp 1050 1140 970 1360 1550 1590 1810 mvh N 1 1 IMF + + + + + + + áóå Å>2 2.3E+8 1.2å+8 7.6å+7 4.3å+7 2.3å+7 2.0E+6 1.9E+7 GOES Ie>2 5723 3025 2815 1734 769 535 pfu GOES Ap 12 12 7 11 17 22 11 nT Dst nT KIOTO Amsc 14 12 9 13 14 11 10 nT IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK CHARACTER OF THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS DON'T CHANGE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov, OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER - SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru