Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05- 10.02.2018, Forecast on 11 - 19.01.2018, Carrington Rotation 2200, 2001 (27,28.01; 23.62.02.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-6.3 - -6.8) deg. (S33 - N23 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL, AND 18.02 THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (19 DAYS ON CURRENT YEAR. THE ESTIMA- TED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W=011+10 /-8 (Wn= 018+15/-6). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK 1 SMALL, RELATIVE- LY ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOWLE- VEL. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL AT 12.02 AND VERY LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. NO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 4 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED 12 AND 17.02. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî - S00L170 S03L175 S10L151 S05L143 11.02 1 SOHO, SDO... óî - N20L189 N12L204 N10L189 S05L163 12800 15.02 4 SOHO, SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 16.02/2040 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD, BUT ALL PERIOD THE SIGN OF SECTOR IS VERY UNSTABLE AND FREQUEN- TLY CHANGING. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 31.02. FEBRUARY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 FEBRUARY Wus 024 026 020 018 015 012 010 000 F10.7 078 079 076 075 073 072 069 070 èbcg á6.3 ÷1.0 A5.8 A5.0 A4.7 A4.3 A4.3 A3.6 GOES Sp 230 230 180 140 100 040 040 000 msh N IMF + + + ± -/+ ± - - DSCOVR Å>2 7.3E+4 8.5E+4 7.5E+4 6.0å+4 6.7å+4 6.2å+4 2.1å+6 6.2å+7 GOES Ie>2 2798 pfu Ap 2 3 3 2 10 6 12 16 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 2 4 3 2 17 7 9 18 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 18.02. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS OR- BIT IS EXPECTED 18 - 23.02. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS QUIET IN THE PERIOD, BUT CME (12.02) COMING FROM THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION MARKED INTENSITY G2 15.02 SUBSTORM DURATION < 3 h. ACCORDING TO THE IZMIRAN DATA AND G0 ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA, AND 18.02 GEOMAGNETIC CODITION WAS ACTIVE. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. 19.02 ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS POSSIBLE. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov