------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2018 HAS MADE Wfeb. = 6.4 10.6(n) THAT GIVES FOR 103 MONTHS (2017, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*aug. = 11.7 19.5 - new system W*july = 12.6; 21.0 - new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - X 2020; THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2018, FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 72 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE: 1.. 0m 6.. 16 11.. 28M 16.. 12 21.. 0m 26.. 16 2.. 0m 7.. 20 12.. 24 17.. 0m 22.. 0m 27.. 15 3.. 0m 8.. 22 13.. 23 18.. 0m 23.. 0m 28.. 12 4.. 11 9.. 25 14.. 19 19.. 0m 24.. 0m 5.. 14 10.. 25 15.. 16 20.. 0m 25.. 0m THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON FEBRUARY 2018, AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, AUGUST F10.7 feb. = 72.0 F*10.7 aug. = 76.3 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON FEBRUARY 2018 AND SMOOTHES ON 2017, AUGUST Ap feb. = 6.1 Ap*aug. = 10.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.02.2018, Forecast on 26.02 - 05.03.2018, Carrington Rotation 2001 (23.62.02.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.5 - -5.0 deg. (S33 - N23 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 3 - 4.03 (29 DAYS ON CUR- RENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 005+05/-05 (Wn = 008+07/-08). ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 1 SMALL QUIET SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF THE VISIBLE DISK 25.02 ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN OB- SERVED. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO EJECTA OF SOLAR FI- LAMENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSER- VED 28.02 AND 2.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî + N40L294 N30L314 N20L289 N25L279 6900 02.03 6 SOHO, SDO... óî + N30L246 N25L266 N05L241 N10L236 07.03 10 SOHO, SDO... óî - S10L208 S35L238 S35L253 S15L203 07.03 1 SOHO, SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 28.02/1630 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 16.03. FEBRUARY 26 27 28 01 02 03 04 MARCH Wus 016 015 011 011 011 000 000 F10.7 070 068 069 067 068 068 068 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 030 010 010 010 010 000 000 msh N IMF - - -/+ + + + + DSCOVR Å>2 8.4E+7 1.7E+7 2.3E+7 3.4å+7 3.0å+7 2.8å+7 2.2å+6 GOES Ie>2 2177 3341 637 872 777 1459 1286 pfu Ap 5 16 5 5 4 6 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 8 18 7 8 5 7 8 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGUN AT 18.02 AND 19 - 26.02 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT FLUX BEGIN AT 03. 03 UT AND OBSERVED 3 - 4.03. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED . GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION RICHED ACTIVE AND G1 SUBSTORM LEVEL ON 27.02 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A NEGATIVE POLARITY CORONAL HOLL HIGH-SPEED STREAM. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THE SUBSTORM DURATION WAS < 9 h. ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER THIS DISTURBATION LASTED < 6 h. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov