Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 05 - 11.03.2018, Forecast on 12 - 19.03.2018, Carrington Rotation 2001 (23.62.02.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-5.0 - -4.5 deg. (S35 - N20 is geoeffectiveness zone) SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL -THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS (36 DAYS ON CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTER- NATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 000 (Wn = 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 4 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILA- MENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 1 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED 5.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 05.03 0325 0530 N32W30L198 10 06.03 >0037 0713 >1713 S11E19L237 14 06.03 >1553 >0653 S04E37L252 9 07.03 >2124 >1425 N22E14L216 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî + N30L246 N25L266 N05L241 N10L236 5600 07.03 10 SOHO, SDO... óî - S10L208 S35L238 S35L253 S15L203 07.03 1 SOHO, SDO... óî - N25L204 N15L207 S02L139 N00L138 14.03 5 G0 SOHO, SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 28.02/1630 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 16.03. MARCH 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 011 000 000 F10.7 068 068 068 067 068 068 068 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF + + + +/- -/~ -/~ -/~ DSCOVR Å>2 2.2E+6 1.7E+6 1.4E+6 1.6å+6 1.4å+6 2.3å+6 1.5å+6 GOES Ie>2 165 168 pfu Ap 4 4 2 2 11 13 6 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 3 4 4 3 10 10 4 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT NO OBSER- VED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED . GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET. 14 -15.03 A GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE EARTH WILL BE PASSED BY HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM THE TRANS-EQVATORIAL CORONAL HOLE "-" POLARITY. THE PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC MISSILE IS NOT MORE THAN 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov