Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
              Highlights on 12 - 18.03.2018,
                Forecast on 19 - 20.03.2018,
           Carrington Rotation 2001 (23.62.02.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-4.5 - -4.0 deg. 
             (S35 - N20 is geoeffectiveness zone)

THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL- 
THE MODE OF SUNSPOT FORMED CHANGED AFTER 14.03: NEW SMALL SUN-
SPOT GROUPS BEGAN TO APPEARS. THE VISIBLE DISK WAS SPOTLESS 12
- 14 AND 16.03 (41 DAYS AT CURRENT YEAR).  THE ESTIMATED, MOST
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN 
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD W = 003+6/-3 (Wn
= 005+9/-5). ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK  TWO NEW  SMALL SUNSPOT 
GROUPS ARE FORMED, AND ONE, WITH HIGH PROBABILITY, ON THE SUN'S 
BACKSIIDE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. 

 NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW. 
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE 
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10.  

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO EJECTA OF SOLAR FILA-
MENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 2 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED 
12.03.
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FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.     Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV   CME
                                 X-ray/Ïp  J/m-2
DSF     
        to      te  localization   l × ÇÒÁÄ.  Fl    AR    CME/to
---------------------------------------------------------------------
NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser.
óî  -  N25L204 N15L207  S02L139 N00L138       14.03   5 G0 SOHO, SDO...
Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the 
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 15.03/12 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.03.

MARCH     12     13     14     15     16     17    18   MARCH
Wus      000    000    000    011    000    015    013 
F10.7    068    069    068    069    068    070    069 
èbcg   <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0  <á1.0   GOES
Sp       000    000    000    010    000    010    010   msh   
N                              1             1      
IMF      ~/+    +/+     +/-   +/-     -     -/+     ~   DSCOVR   
Å>2   1.9E+6 1.2E+6 4.9E+5 5.8å+5 2.1å+8 2.2å+8 1.6å+8   GOES
Ie>2                          309  13732  13798   7111    pfu 
Ap        2      3      10     16     20     12     27   nô  
Dst                                                      nô KIOTO
Amsc      2      3      11     13     15     13     20   nô IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BEGAN
AT 16.03/0105 UT AND OBSERVED 16-18.03.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS EXPECTED 19-22.03.

 GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAS BEEN ACTIVE ON 14 - 16 MARCH. BY THE DATA OF 
THE CENTER IN BOUULDER DATA  MINOR MAGNETIC STORMS  OBSERVED 14 - 15.03 
(G0, Ams= 22, dur.= 12 h.) AND 16-17.03 (G0, Ams= 22, dur.= 12 h.). AC-
CORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THE FIRST MAGNETIC STORM NOTED AT THE SAME TIME 
AND SAME PARAMETERS 14-15.03, AND INSTEAD THE SECOND STORM THERE ARE WE-
RE TWO SUBSTORM (G0)  WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 3 h.  IN THE SECOND HALF 
18.03 THE MAGNETIC STORM (G2)  WHICH CONTINUES AT THE TIME OF COMPILING 
UP THE HIGHLITE HAS BEGUN. THE DISTURBANCE SOURCE ISN'T CLEAR TO ME, ANY 
GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA AREN'T NOTED,  THE FAMILY OF SMALL CORONAL HOLES 
OF SUCH MAGNETIC STORM SHOULDN'T GIVE. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC 
CONDITION HAS BEEN UNSETTLED AND QUIET.   

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET, IF 
THERE ARE NO SAME UNCLEAR SURPRISES FROM BIG FAMILY OF SMALL CORONAL HO-
LES WHICH HAVE OCCUPIED ALL CENTRAL AREA OF THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 
- EFFECT OF THE EQUINOX MAY BE??????

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov