Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 19 - 25.03.2018, Forecast on 26.03 - 01.04.2018, Carrington Rotation 2001, 2002 (23.62.02; 22.92.03.2018) Earth out of ecliptic (-4.5 - -4.1 deg. (S30 - N25 is geoeffectiveness zone) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL, THE VISIBLE DISK WAS SPOTLESS (47 DAYS AT CURRENT YEAR). THE ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERI- OD W = 000 (Wn= 000). NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE VERY LOW. LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. 1 EJECTA OF SOLAR FILA- MENTS REGISTERED ON PERIOD. 3 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSER- VED 19 AND 24.03. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES FROM M1 CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to 19.03 >1002 >2304 N25E60L103 8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Space Obser. óî - N05L050 S02L053 S28L030 S20L025 8000 23.03 3 G0 SOHO,SDO... óî - N65L317 N45L017 N10L309 N12L294 28.03 7 SOHO,SDO... Sch - CH Square in Mm**2 (in square megameters) near the central meri- dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AFTER 24.03/0430 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 27.03. MARCH 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 MARCH Wus 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 F10.7 070 069 069 069 068 068 068 èbcg <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 <á1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 msh N IMF ~/+ ~/+ +/~ ~ ~/+ +/- ~ DSCOVR Å>2 4.8E+8 7.5E+8 8.5E+8 5.3å+8 2.1å+8 1.8å+7 1.1å+8 GOES Ie>2 18382 21043 22143 18383 1086 1624 4168 pfu Ap 16 7 4 7 17 8 17 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 14 6 6 7 13 8 13 nô IZMIRAN -------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAS BEGAN AT 16.03/0105 UT AND OBSERVED 16-25.03. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAS BEEN ACTIVE ON 19, 23 AND 25.03. BY THE DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER DATA MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams= 46, dur.= 15 h.) AND (G1, Ams= 34, dur.= 12 h.) BY IZMIRAN DATA 18 - 19.03 HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IN THE REMAINING DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION HAS BEEN UN- SETTLED AND QUIET. NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET, BUT 28 - 29.03 GROWTH OF DISTURBANCE, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH- SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM BIG CORONAL HOLE OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM ABOUT 5%. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov