DEAR USERS, HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020 (LEAST) YEAR !!! GOOD LUCK, HEALTH AND PERFORMANCE OF ALL OF YOUR TESTAMENTS. IN THIS NEW YEAR THE SUN WILL ENTER THE NEW 25 SOLAR CYCLE, AVERAGE VALUE ------------------------------------------------------------------- THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON DECEMBER 2019 HAS MADE Wdec. = 1 1.6(n) THAT GIVES FOR 125 MONTH (2019, JUNE) OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 SOLAR CYCLE THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER W*june = 2.2 3.7 - in new system W*may = 2.3 3.9 - in new system On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of calcu- lation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers (see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA. THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2) THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM - IV 2014, - Wmax =82; (116.4) THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - I - VI 2020; OTHER SC FORECAST: SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to 35% (last month) - December 2019; CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard curves, due to K. Denkmayr - Already passed a minimum, which is not true.; NOAA - December 2019. The last two, in my opinion, are inadequate, since such short, low SCs were not observed. It should be noted that since mid-November 2019, all 4 sunspot groups (short-lived) were the sunspot groups of 25 cycles of SA. The observed magnetic structures corresponding SC 25 (>43 on October 2019) can be seen http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for December 2019 (65 observatories) : 1.. 0 6.. 0 11.. 0 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 10 31.. 0 2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 0 3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 0 28.. 0 4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 16 29.. 0 5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 23M 30.. 0 Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 [The daily value W in old system close to true (in a minimum phase) can be received, multiplying by k = 0.6]. THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON DECEMBER 2019, AND SMOOTHES ON 2019, JUNE F10.7dec. = 70.9 F*10.7june= 69.6 THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON DECEMBER 2019, AND SMOOT- HES ON 2019, JUNE Ap dec. = 4 Ap*june =6.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Highlights on 30.12.2019 - 05.01.2020, Forecast on 06 - 13.01.2020, Carrington Rotation 2225, 2226 (10,05.12.2019; 06,38.01.2020) Earth out of ecliptic (0.0 - -0.9) deg. (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) THE SUNSPOT-FORMING SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW, BUT WITH A SPOTLESS VISIBLE DISK WAS 30-31.12 (281 SPOTLESS DAYS IN THE YEAR - 77%). ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATI- VE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 4+4/-4 (Wn= 7+6/-7). ON THE VISIBLE DISK ONE SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP, HIGH-ALTITUDE, WITH THE ORDER OF MAGNTTIC POLARITIES 25th CYCLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY. NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WAS ON VERY LOW LEVEL. LI- KELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W=010+10/-10. FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC- TIONS AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ------------------------------------------------------------------- FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES to tm te local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME X-ray/Ïp J/m-2 DSF to te localization l × ÇÒÁÄ. Fl AR CME/to -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVEL. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED: --------------------------------------------------------------------- sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Spacecraft CH + N20L114 N15L132 S15L114 S08L110 3.1% 31.12 1 - SDO, SOHO... CH*+ S05L040 S15L057 S28L030 S12L010 5.5% 07.01 8 - SDO, SOHO... * - low geoeffectivity, the substors with duration <6 h. only. Sch - CH area in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM 25.01/13 UT, THE SIGN OF SECTOR IMF IS EXPECTED UNSTABLE AND CHAN- GES FREQUENTLY, BUT IN THE MIDDLE IT REMAINS WITH THE "+". IN THE FOLLOW- ING WEEK THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SECTOR SIGN NOT CHANGED, BUT NEXT SECTOR BOU- DARY BE EXPECTED 7.01. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER 30 31 01 02 03 04 05 JANUARY Wus 000 000 000 013 013 011 011 F10.7 071 071 072 072 071 072 072 èbcg A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A<1.0 A1.1 A<1.0 A<1.0 GOES Sp 000 000 000 020 020 010 010 msh N 1 IMF + + +/- -/+ + + + DSCOVR Å>2 4.6E+6 7.8E+5 4.0E+6 3.7E+6 4.0E+6 3.4E+6 5.9E+6 GOES Ie>2 245 pfu Ap 3 4 3 3 6 6 9 nô Dst nô KIOTO Amsc 2 3 7 7 6 13 13 nô IZMIRAN ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Å>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV. Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or- bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events > 1000 pfu. THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED. NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION AT MIDDLE LATITUDES REMAINS QUIET ALL DAYS. NEXT WEEK THE MOST PROBABLY QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WILL OBSERVED. HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA: NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov, THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru V. Ishkov